Without a doubt, it’s been a good year so far in our local real
estate market. I don’t even have to look
at the Houston Association of Realtors’ press releases and statistical
reports. I’ve heard plenty of positive remarks
from my fellow realtors that match up with what I’ve observed in my own
business. But Montgomery County is a
large market with hundreds and hundreds of Realtors. So let’s take a look at some statistical
information to get a more comprehensive view of the market as it now stands in
2012.
In reviewing the most recent info, the best news is that single
family sales in Montgomery County have increased 16% this year compared to the
same time period in 2011. That reflects
a substantial growth in the market. The
increase in demand has also resulted in homes selling more quickly, with the
average time on the market decreasing 14%.
We haven’t had a corresponding increase in prices though, with the
average price increasing only ½%. We may
be on the brink of some uplift in prices though since active listings have
declined 17% versus this same time last year.
The bottom line is that Montgomery County, as a whole, is currently in a
seller’s market.
But as most folks know, Montgomery County is comprised of 4
rather distinct markets; the Northwest, Northeast, Southwest, and the
Southeast. Each area has its own market
characteristics and have all performed well.
Some encouraging news is that the Northwest, dominated by the many Lake
Conroe communities, had the highest year to year percentage increase in sales
and sales prices. But with a significant
backlog of homes for sale, it is still considered a buyer’s market. The Northeast also did well and without as
many listings is in a slight seller’s market.
The overall strongest performer as usual is the Southwest which remains
a strong seller’s market.
Another way to look at the market is year to year changes by
type of sale. I like to look at three
broad categories of single family sales; resales, new construction and
distressed properties. Sales of
previously owned homes, or resales, make up 71% of the total single family
housing market. These sales have
increased 22% over last year and are selling 15% faster. But prices have remained relatively
flat. New construction comprises about
15% of the total market. These sales
have increased 8%, are selling 2% faster, but prices have declined about
5%. The price decline is partially due
to the average size home being slightly smaller, but the average price per
square foot is also less. Finally, distressed
properties, i.e. foreclosures and short sales, make up the remaining 14% of the
market. This market has remained
relatively unchanged in the number of sales and the average sales price. But they are selling 23% faster which may be
an indication that lenders have finally figured how to dispose of their
distressed assets more quickly.
As I write this article, 2012 YTD sales have already surpassed
total year sales for each of the 4 preceding years. One would have to go to the last pre-housing
collapse year of 2007 to find more robust sales than 2012. I’m not one to be bold enough to predict the
future of our local real estate market as there are simply too many
uncontrollable variables involved. But
the results so far this year make me one optimistic Realtor.